🎉 Happy New Year! 🥳

Rates

Rates are a smidge higher than last week’s average. Nothing to be too worried over, yet.

Important notes for understanding and using this information:

• Any site/chart that advertises rates (like the above) is showing a national average for one very specific loan scenario, as reported by survey respondents. These aren’t the rates that borrowers are locking in. Use this only as a tool to get a gauge of what ballpark to expect
• 30 Yr Fixed Conventional: a “top tier” scenario is used as a baseline (owner occupied, single family, 25% down, 780+ credit)
• Most important point: the best use of this index is to track the CHANGE from week to week. There are so many things that can cause discrepancies between borrowers, lenders, and quotes.

Commentary

Mortgage rates managed to make it through the entire holiday season without any major drama. That was in sharp contrast to the preceding month which saw a decent drop heading into early December and a sharp spike that accelerated after the Fed’s rate cut on the 18th.

This sort of indecision isn’t necessarily a given for the end of December, but it’s certainly the baseline. Absences among market participants and disruptions in the economic calendar make it easier for everyone to plan on simply jumping back in with both feet on the first full week of January.

In simple terms, this means that the odds of volatility (for better or worse) are higher this week. Over the past 6 months, biggest movement surrounded the release of the monthly jobs report at the beginning of each of the past 4 months. The next installment is out next Friday, January 10th.

Even before then, the combination of increased trader participation and several other highly regarded economic reports could get things moving in one direction or the other earlier in the week. On the other side of the jobs report, the following week brings equally important inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

When it comes to “movement,” whether in rates or housing metrics, we remain in a sort of limbo. Importantly, it will take more than the first two weeks of January for any truly significant momentum to develop.

Lock/Float Considerations

No change from last week. Watch this week’s activity closely.

Last week: Rates continue muddling along at or near longer-term highs following the December 18th Fed announcement. If we hope to see significant improvement, it would depend on big ticket econ data like the jobs report or CPI (Jan 10th and 15th respectively). Random volatility remains a risk in the New Year holiday week. If we see calendar-driven support, it wouldn’t be until Thursday and even then (and to reiterate), bigger victories require bigger data.

Econ Calendar – Potential Market Movers

• Tuesday – ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), December
  • Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry
    

• Wednesday – Unemployment Claims, weekly
• Wednesday – FOMC Meeting Minutes
  

• Thursday – Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning
  • NYSE, Nasdaq closed
  • Bond market closes 2PM EST

• Friday – Unemployment Rate, monthly
• Friday – Non Farm Payroll, monthly
  • Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry
• Friday – Average Hourly Earnings, monthly
  • Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry; It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer

Loan Program Updates

Luminate offers multiple bridge loan options!

• Buy side bridge – buyer takes a short-term personal loan allowing them to make a cash offer

• Sell side bridge – use equity in departing residence for down payment on new purchase (available as a 1st or 2nd mortgage on the departing residence)

• Guaranteed Backup Contract – bonafide contract to purchase departing residence 120 days after new home purchase. Allows borrower to exclude departing residence from new home qualifications. Goal is to sell departing residence on the open market in fewer than 120 days; if cannot, home is sold per the Guaranteed Backup Contract terms

Rates

🎉 Happy New Year! Markets close early Tuesday and reopen Thursday.

We woke up to a nice rally today. As of now, mortgage bonds are up 36bps, the equivalent of about .125-.25% improvement in rate. The consensus is that the large swings last week and this week are all part of the standard holiday/end of year wrap up.

Important notes for understanding and using this information:

• Any site/chart that advertises rates (like the above) is showing a national average for one very specific loan scenario, as reported by survey respondents. These aren’t the rates that borrowers are locking in. Use this only as a tool to get a gauge of what ballpark to expect
• 30 Yr Fixed Conventional: a “top tier” scenario is used as a baseline (owner occupied, single family, 25% down, 780+ credit)
• Most important point: the best use of this index is to track the CHANGE from week to week. There are so many things that can cause discrepancies between borrowers, lenders, and quotes.

Commentary

Here is a nice and easy 2024 real estate and mortgage summary. TLDR: 2023 and 2024 were pretty similar when all is said and done. 2025 looks to start off on the same trend; economic data in early January could set the tone going forward.

Lock/Float Considerations

Rates continue muddling along at or near longer-term highs following the December 18th Fed announcement. If we hope to see significant improvement, it would depend on big ticket econ data like the jobs report or CPI (Jan 10th and 15th respectively). Random volatility remains a risk in the New Year holiday week. If we see calendar-driven support, it wouldn’t be until Thursday and even then (and to reiterate), bigger victories require bigger data.

Econ Calendar – Potential Market Movers

• Thursday – Unemployment Claims, weekly

• Friday – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Institute for Supply Management, Purchasing Managers’ Index), December
  • Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry

Loan Program Updates

• Luminate Home Loans is moving to Luminate Bank in early 2025. Right now, Luminate Home Loans is a wholly owned subsidiary of Luminate Bank. In February, we will become a division of Luminate Bank. This move will result in the exact same set up as ENG Lending/Bank of England – a FDIC insured lender. There will be no changes to how loans are processed, underwritten, issued or sold on the secondary market. Being a division of the bank will give us direct and easy access to bank lending products (HELOCs, SBA and commercial loans) as well as actual banking products (personal and business checking/savings, etc.)

• Other than the name change to Luminate Bank, you will not experience any service or disruptions

🎄 Markets close early Tuesday and reopen Thursday. Happy holidays! 🎄

Rates

Rates are up after last week’s Fed meeting:

Important notes for understanding and using this information:

• Any site/chart that advertises rates (like the above) is showing a national average for one very specific loan scenario, as reported by survey respondents. These aren’t the rates that borrowers are locking in. Use this only as a tool to get a gauge of what ballpark to expect
• 30 Yr Fixed Conventional: a “top tier” scenario is used as a baseline (owner occupied, single family, 25% down, 780+ credit)
• Most important point: the best use of this index is to track the CHANGE from week to week. There are so many things that can cause discrepancies between borrowers, lenders, and quotes.

Commentary

Last week wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Wednesday’s Fed meeting caused a bond sell-off, raising rates. But, after Friday’s PCE inflation report, things improved a bit. Bonds didn’t recover to the pre-Wednesday levels, but every little bit helps in terms of mortgage rates. PCE inflation came in at 0.1% at the core level, month over month. If inflation repeated that performance for 12 months, annual inflation would be below the 2.0% target.

Holiday weeks–particularly those for Thanksgiving and X-mas–tend to have idiosyncrasies. At the simplest level, this just means that we shouldn’t read too much into any seemingly counterintuitive volatility. Bonds can go either direction for what seems like no real reason.

​Highest existing home sales since March.

Lock/Float Considerations

All bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. Any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we’re waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).

Econ Calendar – Potential Market Movers

• Thursday – Unemployment Claims, weekly

Loan Program Updates

Soft credit pulls for pre-approvals starting Jan 2!

• • Trended SoftQual credit reporting, designed to enhance loan file preparation while protecting borrowers from trigger leads. This streamlined process empowers borrowers with additional time to opt out of trigger leads, ensuring a smoother and more secure journey through the loan process.

Rates

As of Monday morning, rates are up a tick from Friday’s closing:

Important notes for understanding and using this information:

• Any site/chart that advertises rates (like the above) is showing a national average for one very specific loan scenario, as reported by survey respondents. These aren’t the rates that borrowers are locking in. Use this only as a tool to get a gauge of what ballpark to expect
• 30 Yr Fixed Conventional: a “top tier” scenario is used as a baseline (owner occupied, single family, 25% down, 780+ credit)
• Most important point: the best use of this index is to track the CHANGE from week to week. There are so many things that can cause discrepancies between borrowers, lenders, and quotes.

Commentary

Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. Last Friday threw a bit of a curveball with a small but noticeable break to even lower yields. At the start of the new week, bonds have moved quickly back to the familiar consolidation range marked by a floor of 4.17. Meaningful improvement from here will require concrete motivation from this week’s CPI/PPI.

Lock/Float Considerations

Rates are at the lowest levels in a month and a half after a friendly jobs report. That’s a compelling lock opportunity for the risk averse crowd. While there’s no guarantee that recently friendly momentum will continue, the risk-tolerant crowd tends to wait and see if the market starts trending upward before acting.

Econ Calendar – Potential Market Movers

• Wed., 12/11 – Core CPI – Consumer Price Index
• Thurs., 12/12 – Core PPI – Producer Price Index
• Thurs., 12/12 – Jobless Claims

Loan Program Updates

• 2025 Loan Limits are live:
  • Conventional 1 unit: $806,500
  • Conventional 2 units: $1,032,650
  • FHA 1 unit: $524,225
  • FHA 2 units: $671,200